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Archive for the ‘RPI Watch’ Category

Current RPI: 191 (-2 from last game’s RPI of 189)

Changes: The Niners defeated the Youngstown St. Penguins of the Horizon League by 20 in dominating fashion. Clearly a different 49ers team than the group that lost at the buzzer to teams equally futile to Y’town. Lutz is minimizing substitutions now as he appears to have a feel for how each player fits into the lineup. The Penguins were a very inferior opponent and never really threatened to take control of the game.

My Thoughts: Lamont Mack returned to lackluster play after breaking it open vs. Miss St. in the previous week. However, Dijuan Harris had a career game, finally pulling up to take the shot instead of passing as he went perfect from the floor scoring 20. Those twenty points were the difference in the game. The Niners hit 100 pts. in a regular season game for the first time since they lost in 3OT vs. #22 Alabama my freshman year… four years ago. I would continue to be optimistic about the improvement of the team if An’Juan Wilderness, the 3rd leading scorer wasn’t out for the next two weeks with a stress fracture.

Ugh. Right when we were making progress after losing 2 of our top three guards at the start of the season, we lose another top guy. I’ve now got to re-adjust my outlook on the season. I think we’ll take down Long Island to go 5-6 but at Maryland on the 3rd is now the definition point of the season. Can we beat an NCAA caliber team? Without our top defensive presence? I’m not very confident.

I’m down in Lousiana where everyone is getting hyped up about UL-Lafayette’s Ragin’ Cajuns taking on #18 Tennesee so I won’t be in Halton for the Long Island game. Hopefully I can catch it on internet radio or Uttervision via NNN.net shoutbox.

Data based on Sagarin Ratings via RPIForecast.com,

Probability of NCAA Tourney at-large bid (40 or lower RPI) = .03%<

Most probable end of season record = 14-16

I’ll be posting an RPI update for the Charlotte 49ers after every game (once data is available). You can subscribe to these updates without reading menial stories from my life by subscribing to this RSS feed. I will be launching a 49ers sports only blog in the next few months to cover this kind of information so you won’t have to read all this other stuff for too long.

Dec 28th RPI

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Current RPI: 189 (+39 from last game’s RPI of 228)

Changes: The Niners defeated the Miss St. Bulldogs of the SEC by 6 after blowing a 20+ point lead in Starkville, MS to improve to 3-6 on the season. The 49ers started a 2 game win streak (Southern Ill., Miss St.) after tying the program’s worst ever losing streak by dropping 6 straight (Old Dominion, App St., Clemson, Arizona St., Providence, Cal State Fullerton)

My Thoughts: Lamont Mack finally woke up and played his first strong game of the season dropping 19 and hitting 8-15 from 2pt. range. This road win builds momentum for two relatively easy home games before heading up to Maryland. After dropping many close games (2 by 1 pt, and 2 in OT) it was great to finally win one definitively (up by 16 at the half). I can definitely see Lutz turning this team around by giving them a more structured offense and Mack getting out of his slump has helped significantly.  This team definitely goes 5-6 over the next two games and I don’t think we lose again until we play at Temple on January 24th giving us a record of 11-7 before hitting the meat of the A10 season vs. Xavier.

I think Lutz has turned this season around over the last two games and we go 20-10. We’ll finish 3rd in the A10 with a 12-4 A10 record behind Xavier and Temple. Our four conference losses will come to Xavier, Temple, Fordham and Richmond.

Disclaimer: Optimism noted above can disappear quickly by losing to Long Island or Youngstown St. in our next two games

Data based on Sagarin Ratings via RPIForecast.com,

Probability of NCAA Tourney at-large bid (40 or lower RPI) = .03%

Most probable end of season record = 14-16

I’ll be posting an RPI update for the Charlotte 49ers after every game (once data is available). You can subscribe to these updates without reading menial stories from my life by subscribing to this RSS feed. I will be launching a 49ers sports only blog in the next few months to cover this kind of information so you won’t have to read all this other stuff for too long.

Up and away!

Up and away!

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