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Archive for November 24th, 2006

The Black in Black Friday

The age old question still remains, “What can a Black Man Get on Black Friday?”. Thanks to Charlotte radio we can finally ask that question and receive the answer,

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Scouting Georgia State vs Charlotte


How does Charlotte matchup vs Georgia State? Here are 3 key areas where Charlotte should focus to gain an edge,

Speed of Game: Georgia State runs slightly a slightly slower tempo than Charlotte, expect Charlotte to attempt to outrun Georgia State

3-Pt Shooting Trends: Georgia State does not like to shoot the 3, yet Charlotte has terrible perimiter D through 3 games. However, Georgia State is highly efficient from 3pt range, connecting almost 41% of the time. This seems to indicate that Georgia State only shoots from behind the arc when they have a good shot. Basically put, if the Niners don’t improve around the perimiter, Georgia State will be able to torch the Niners from outside. On the flip side, Georgia State usually allows their opponents a few decent looks from three range and Charlotte needs to take advantage of them.

Fouls: Georgia State is very good at getting to the foul line, and Charlotte is bad at allowing its opponents to get there. Expect Ga. State to get about 10-15 of their points from FTs

Charlotte should have the edge because Georgia State has picked up its only two wins against Winston Salem State and Alabama State. It’s two losses came to College of Charleston and Georgia Tech (which scored 103 points on GaSt)

If Charlotte can take advantage of its open looks from 3 and limit the Panthers’ trips to the foul line, it could be the 49ers 1st decisive victory of the season.

Biased Prediction

Charlotte 92
Georgia State 74

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Now its time for my favorite thing to do every year, break down the team using the wonderful statistics provided by Ken Pomeroy,

looking @ Charlotte’s scouting report here is what the stats have to say,

Offensively

The good
We rank 40th in the nation in Turnover %, only turning the ball over 18% of the time

We rank 39th in the nation in Free Throw Rate, getting to the FT line 35.2% of every FG shot

We rank 32nd in the nation in Steal %, only getting the ball stolen 6.6% of the time

The Bad
We rank 11th in the nation at 3pt attempted per total field goals attempted, 50.3% of our shots are 3’s (this is up significantly from previous years) and this is not in itself a bad things but…

We rank 240th in 3-pt FG% hitting only 30% of our 3pters

We rank 322nd out of 336 teams in Assists per Field Goals Made, if I was an opposing coach there is almost a 60% chance that the guy with the ball is going to take the shot, this is indicitative of the fact that we do not seem to run many set plays

We rank 283rd in Block % (i.e. we get almost 13% of our shots blocked)

Our effective FG% is 46.1% ranking 237th in the nation, basically we need to shoot better

Our offensive rebound % is ranked 309th in the nation, meaning we get hardly any 2nd chance shots

Defensively

The Good

We rank 5th in the nation in Defensive rebounds!! wow…

The Bad

Almost every key category in the defensive stats are ranked 250th and below,

Opponents FG% – 309th – 58.1%
Opponents FT Rate – 310th – 53.8% (our opponents get to the FT line on 53.8% of their shots!!)
Opponents 3pt % – 295th – 42%
Opponents 2pt % – 53.2%

But here is the most shocking stat, our perimeter D is SO bad our opponents acutally attempt more 3pters than us, our opponents take the 3 on 50.6% of their offensive possesions!!

Analysis

This team has a lot of work to do, especially in almost every defensive category. We are shooting the ball very poorly and are not running plays very well. Yet somehow we played Syracuse very well and even seemed poised to win that game at times. This team will find success, naturally if every category improves… and Lutz’s teams do get better throughout the year…. but the more realistic outlook seems to be that the Niners either need to shoot significantly better (and thus outscore their opponents) or keep the same shooting level and lock down defensively. On the offensive end specifically, unless we are hitting our threes we need to stop taking them and focus on more movement through the lane. On the defensive end we need to keep our opponents from getting to the line so much and force them inside the arc by playing perimiter defense.

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